🔗 Share this article

Only two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes that came in after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which election day went kind of poorly for him, where the opponent would have essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously went for the progressive now. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. But no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.