🔗 Share this article Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro. A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.” Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.” Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”