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The direst possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been detailed by researchers, encompassing a blistering 4C jump in temperatures to a two-metre rise in sea levels. An alternative projection predicts a drop of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset farming and power requirements.

Possible Outcomes, Not Forecasts

These consequences, some of which are connected to climate tipping points, are viewed as unlikely but possible. The researchers explained that these models filled a gap in risk assessment that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for worst-case results.

"The severe weather events we have outlined aren’t predictions, but they are plausible," stated the lead researcher who oversaw the analysis. "The UK has been planning without the methods to test against catastrophic outcomes. We've now supplied planners what they need to get ready for environmental results they hope never happen, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Range of Harsh Climate Projections

A second set of dire projections maps the potential extent of extreme weather between now and the close of the 2100s. These indicate that temperatures could skyrocket in some months by up to 6C above the norm, while rainfall could be 300% of normal levels.

The likelihood of the extreme scenarios coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to uncertainty about what measures will be enacted to address global warming and how the climate system will react. This analysis was described as similar to national security risk assessments or stress tests for the banking sector.

Critical Outcome Highlights

• Severe Heating: Planetary heating soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if emissions cuts breaks down or if vicious cycles such as the tropical forests becoming a net carbon source emit its huge repository of carbon. This would cause extreme and prolonged heat domes and droughts hitting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and becoming unstable due to global heating. A full shutdown starting around 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and freshwater availability would be completely altered," said the lead researcher.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic melt abruptly, inundating coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this possibility is already known by infrastructure experts.
• Pollution Paradox: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is sharply cut. This paradoxical outcome occurs because aerosol particles from industrial activity reflect solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Worst

The worst-case scenarios could be used to inform the building of major projects, such as housing developments, nuclear power stations and flood defences. Knowledge about these environmental threats could also hasten the push to slash carbon pollution.

The research developed the severe projections using a blend of observed and historical experience, computer simulations and established principles. The possibilities exclude international cascading effects like the devastation of food supplies and resource wars.

The research was requested as part of a official risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have stated that too little consideration was being allocated to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

Official experts has said that the UK needs to "become resilient to moderate heating" and assess the risks for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been criticised as being "very weak" by some observers.

A government spokesperson noted: "Climate change is at the core of this government’s agenda, both adapting for the future and establishing itself as a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is prepared for the effects."