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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd